Winter 2025/26 is shaping up as a weak La Niña season that leans “event‑driven” rather than relentlessly brutal, with meaningful implications for both U.S. weather and PJM‑area energy costs.
La Niña in a nutshell
La Niña occurs when sea‑surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are cooler than usual, which shifts the jet stream and storm tracks across North America. In winter, that usually means colder, stormier conditions across the northern U.S. and warmer, drier conditions across much of the South. Forecasters expect the 2025–26 La Niña to remain on the weak side and fade toward neutral sometime between January and March 2026, so its influence should be noticeable but not dominant all season.
National weather pattern
A weak La Niña typically pushes the jet stream northward, steering more frequent cold fronts and storm systems into the Pacific Northwest, the northern Plains, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley. Those regions tend to see cooler‑than‑average and often wetter or snowier conditions, with the strongest signal in the Northwest and a softer but still relevant tilt around the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. By contrast, the Southwest, Gulf Coast, and much of the Southeast are more likely to run warmer and drier than usual, which can worsen drought in some southern areas and reduce the risk of snow and ice there.
This winter’s twist
Because this episode is expected to remain weak, other patterns, such as the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, can still override the La Niña signal at times. Current 2025–26 seasonal outlooks highlight increased odds of wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley and warmer, drier conditions across much of the southern U.S., while the central belt of the country sits in “equal chances” territory. That means local outcomes can still swing either way, with the bigger story likely being a handful of impactful cold snaps rather than wall‑to‑wall extremes.
Energy demand and costs
Colder‑leaning conditions in the northern tier raise space‑heating needs for natural gas, heating oil, and electric heat, especially in densely populated regions. That tends to push up overall winter energy consumption and supports firmer winter pricing for gas and power, with the sharpest bill impacts in colder areas during sustained cold spells. At the same time, warmer, drier conditions in the southern tier generally limit heating demand there, but do not eliminate the risk of brief, severe cold outbreaks that can still trigger short‑lived but intense price spikes.
What does it mean in PJM?
For PJM, the most likely outcome is near‑normal to slightly warmer seasonal averages overall, punctuated by several colder, stormier periods that create “spiky” heating days and price risk. Seasonal guidance points to a more active, colder pattern from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the interior Northeast, with the Mid‑Atlantic sitting closer to normal overall but exposed when the storm track dips south. PJM’s own winter outlook calls for a potential new winter peak near 145,000 MW and tighter reserve margins than last year, which means the grid is adequately supplied but more sensitive to extreme cold and generator outages.
Natural gas prices and PJM customers
Industry forecasts peg U.S. winter natural gas demand around the high‑120s to roughly 130 Bcf/d, a few Bcf/d above last winter, driven by stronger residential/commercial heating and higher LNG exports. On the price side, Henry Hub winter averages are expected to run in the upper‑3 to around 4 $/MMBtu range—higher than last winter, but still moderate by historical standards—within a “tighter but not stressed” supply‑demand balance. For PJM customers, that combination points to: slightly higher baseline winter gas and power prices than last year; an elevated, weather‑dependent risk of sharp day‑ahead and spot spikes during Arctic outbreaks; and growing structural gas burn from generation, keeping PJM closely linked to gas market swings.
How businesses can prepare
For commercial and industrial users in PJM, this winter favors strategy over speculation. Practical moves include layering hedges instead of going 100 percent short or fully fixed at once, reviewing firm versus interruptible gas arrangements ahead of peak season, and using demand response, load shifting, and building optimization to trim exposure on the most expensive days. Pairing these procurement tactics with efficiency upgrades and better controls gives businesses more room to ride out La Niña‑driven volatility—whether winter delivers a few sharp punches or a longer, grinding cold stretch.