Weather: PEAK HOURS FOR HEAT GETTING SHORTER

While temperatures remain above average for most of the country, the afternoon peak temperatures are not lasting as long as we move into fall and earlier sunsets. This has led to less cooling demand and more substantial storage reports.

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NOAA TRACK OF HURRICANE IAN

Tropical Storm Ian, forecast to turn into a major Category 4 hurricane that will hit Florida and miss most of the production and LNG facilities along the Gulf Coast, will likely only affect demand and not production. This will bring prices lower.

However, should the storm tract move farther west towards Louisiana, it could harm Gulf production wells and LNG facilities. Curtailing demand should lower gas costs, while curtailing production should raise them.

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STRONG PRODUCTION AND LOWER COOLING DEMAND LOWERS MARKET

MARKET HAS DROPPED $2.00 SO FAR THIS MONTH

• Stronger production numbers and lower cooling demand has sent the market tumbling further as the market has dropped roughly $2.00 since September 1st.
• Peak afternoon hours of heat also grow shorter as we move into Autumn weather.
• Pricing for Natural Gas has fallen ~$2.00 in September, with most of the decline in the last two weeks thanks to milder weather, more robust production, and more substantial storage reports. In addition, last week’s +103 Bcf injection was the largest of the year.

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NATURAL GAS STORAGE REPORT

•Last week’s storage report brought us down to -6.4% below last year’s numbers. Strong injections and production could continue the decline in pricing before winter weather hits.

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PJM Pricing

PJM BGE SEPTEMBER 13TH

PJM BGE SEPTEMBER 20TH

PJM ADHUB SEPTEMBER 13TH

PJM ADHUB SEPTEMBER 20TH

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