Energy Market Update: Sept. 10, 2025
Natural Gas Market Update
Natural gas pricing has edged higher in the past week, driven by expectations of production cutbacks across the industry. Notably, forward winter pricing for 2025 has increased by about $0.20 per MMBtu, pointing to a cautious market entering the colder season.
WINTER 2025/2026 NATURAL GAS PRICING
Supply Trends
Last week’s +55 Bcf storage injection was notably stronger than both the five-year average and last year’s figures, effectively helping to limit price escalation. Next winter’s natural gas prices are still below those observed in the previous year, when temperatures stayed close to historical norms.
Production has retreated to 106.6 Bcf/d, after peaking above 108 Bcf/d in recent months. This pullback followed market resistance at $2.70 per MMBtu, with suppliers recalibrating as market signals shifted.
EIA: STORAGE REPORT
Natural Gas Storage Outlook
The weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Outlook report tracks the volume of natural gas in underground U.S. storage, revealing weekly fluctuations and comparison against 5-year averages.
Demand Trends
Demand remains moderate thanks to mild temperatures nationally. The next couple of weeks will bring a slight uptick in temperatures, but nothing unseasonably extreme is expected. On the export front, the Plaquemines and Corpus Christi LNG plants have raised capacity, with Golden Pass LNG taking small amounts of test gas, supporting production gains.
NYMEX Forward Calendar Strips – contango widening at the front end
💡 Did You Know?
The NYMEX 12-Month Strip averages the next 12 months of Henry Hub futures into one price. It’s a powerful indicator of market sentiment — allowing traders (and end users) to lock in year-long coverage at a blended rate. Watching shifts in this strip helps gauge the broader direction of gas markets, beyond just the prompt month.
Natural Gas Settlement Price History
A chart highlighting the monthly and yearly settlement prices for NYMEX natural gas futures contracts, revealing how prices have responded to supply, demand, and weather over time.
Energy Buying Strategy
Buying small blocks of energy for winter 2025 (and possibly a small summer block, around 25% of needs) can be good insurance at current pricing levels. Contracts covering only 2026 will be higher than multi-year contracts that blend lower pricing from 2027-2029. For high-usage clients (over one million kWh/year), consider a managed index product to capture market dips and avoid premium charges on elements like capacity—especially while market signals remain favorable.
Preview expected temperature trends that affect near-term market demand.
Electricity: Did You Know?
- PJM’s latest capacity auction results signal rising costs in the region, with AI data center demand a major driver of higher bills and increased volatility. Some forecasts suggest rates could jump up to 60% over the next five years in the PJM area.
Capacity Market Update
- The 2026/2027 PJM Capacity Auction results were released in late July, with prices rising to $329.17/MW-day, slightly above the expected collar max due to a last-minute adjustment.