PJM has Issued A Peak Demand Alert for Wednesday, July 12, 2023
Tomorrow is the first Peak Demand Day of 2023!
- A Peak Demand Alert has been issued for Wednesday, July 12 is 3:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m. EST, with demand expected to exceed 138.8 GW.
- TPI Efficiency urges you to consider reducing your consumption during the forecasted peak timeframe. We continue to monitor this tomorrow.
- If your operations are flexible, we encourage you to monitor the PJM website tomorrow via the resource link below to aid your business decision.
- We recommend reducing your electricity consumption during the forecasted peak.
- Capacity makes up ~30% of your total supply cost per kWh. Your future capacity tags and cost could be impacted!
On Wednesday, July 12, 2023, high temperatures could impact your Capacity Peak Load Contribution (PLC) and future electricity costs.
There is a possibility that an hour between 3 p.m. and 7 p.m. Wednesday will end up as one of the five highest PJM peak loads of the year, which will be used for Capacity calculation. Customers wanting to catch all five peaks should consider reducing electricity consumption during those hours.
There is uncertainty around the actual load for the day and what level will be the 5th highest for the year.
At this point, we have set our threshold for curtailing at 138.5 GW and generally recommend customers trim when the peak load forecast by PJM is within 2 GW of the threshold. That threshold value will change throughout the summer as the 5th highest peak (actual and in the immediate forecast) changes.
What You Need To Know
What is a coincident peak day?
One of the five highest-demand days (during the summer months) when PJM chooses to measure the peak demand—typically during the hour of the day with the highest demand.
Your average usage/demand during the five peak hours of the summer (measured by PJM on the five coincident peak days) determines what your capacity obligation (i.e., “capacity tag”) will be for the following year—and impacts your overall energy costs.
What can you do?
Having this information and reacting to it may help lower your business’ capacity obligation for next year.
By reducing your consumption on those days, you can potentially mitigate some of the impacts of high real-time and day-ahead prices.
Summer Peak Estimates
The forecast estimates summer peak load growth to average 0.8% per year over the next 10 to 15 years. This estimated rate is expected to result in an RTO-wide summer peak of approximately 160,971 MW in 2033 and 167,567 MW in 2038.
The 2023 summer’s upcoming peak is forecast at approximately 149,059 MW. PJM’s record summer peak took place in 2006 at 165,563 MW.
