TPI Market Snapshot header
market snapshot header

WE’RE BACK TO HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE US

weather map
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In an era of persistent demand and hot summers, pricing is expected to remain high. Especially as July came in as the third hottest on record. Experts predict the supply concerns and increased demand for LNG could eventually drive pricing up this winter past $13.00

OCTOBER RE-OPENING OF FREEPORT KEEPS NATURAL GAS PRICING HIGH

FREEPORT WILL MEAN AN EXTRA 14 BCF PER WEEK OF EXPORTS

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  • Freeport LNG facility in Texas is now expected to begin exports again in mid-October. This will mean an extra 14 Bcf a week towards exports and storage injection.
  • We are looking at storage numbers 12.5% below last year and 10% below the five-year-average heading into withdrawal season, which begins in November.
  • Pricing will also be affected by Gazprom’s announcement that the NordStream 1 pipeline will shut down for three days due to maintenance issues. This has increased Europe’s Natural Gas pricing to $410 per bbl of oil.

NATURAL GAS STORAGE REPORT

EIA natural gas storage report
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  • Pricing will become especially volatile this week with a good amount of risk on the upside. With seemingly endless maintenance issues from US producers keeping production low and Gazprom’s announcement that it will shut Nordstream 1 down for three days for maintenance, supply will be scarce.
  • Freeport will be re-opening its LNG facility in mid-October. At least partially. This will mean another 2.0-2.6 bcf/d off the weekly injection, or 14Bcf. This is keeping worries over our storage inventories front and center and the Natural Gas market very bullish.
  • The weekly storage report for Natural Gas comes out at 10:30 AM on Thursday. This report usually has the most significant impact on pricing and the weather. A low storage report, below the five-year average, will often mean the market goes up. Conversely, good storage can bring the market down, but not as quickly as it can go up.