TPI Market Snapshot header
TPI Market Snapshot for the week of March 13 2023

Weather: FORECAST CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS, BUT THE NORMAL TEMP IS WARMER

US Weather Map Outlook

Several cold weather systems will sweep the US early this week, bringing a strong demand for natural gas. Temperatures will warm later in the week, easing demand, but colder-than-normal weather systems will return over most of the US for the weekend.

HAVE WE HIT THE BOTTOM OF THE NATURAL GAS MARKET?

Natural Gas Calendar Strips

NATURAL GAS PRICES CREEP HIGHER DESPITE GOOD STORAGE NUMBERS.

  • The storage report for March 3rd was a little closer than last week to the norm but was still almost 40 Bcf less withdrawal than previous year and nearly 20 Bcf less than the five-year average.
  • Freeport has reopened two of the three LNG processing trains that have been closed down since the explosion at the LNG facility last June. When it fully reopens, this will take almost 2.5 Bcf a day out of domestic storage for export.

NORTHEAST OHIO ENERGY NEWS: NOPEC Update

NOPEC has been allowed to keep its certificate in Ohio, with additional restrictions being put on NOPEC if they drop their customers with no notice, as they did late in 2022.

Electricity Rates: Latest Charts

Electricity, which usually runs parallel to Natural Gas in market movement, has increased by roughly $5.00 MWh in the past week, in line with the increase in natural gas pricing. Power pricing is still well below what it was just six months ago.

PJM BGE HUB FORWARD POWER PRICING

Electricity Rates PJM BGE HUB FORWARD POWER PRICING

PJM AD HUB PRICING 2023

Electricity Rates PJM AD HUB PRICING 2023

EIA: Natural Gas Storage Report

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report
  • Light withdrawals have meant good storage of Natural Gas coming out of the winter. After last week’s -84 withdrawal, we now have 32.1% more gas in storage than we did last year and 21.5% more than the five-year average. This surplus has put us at the highest end of the five-year range and helped to keep pricing below $3.00 on the NYMEX prompt month.
  • The Freeport LNG facility is ramping up production and should be online soon. Two of the three trains (the trains are the different parts of the LNG processing line) are now operating, and the third train is just waiting for final approval to restart operations. Freeport will export roughly 2-2.5 Bcf daily when fully operational.
  • Producers may consider cutting production back from the near-record level, as they have been at around 102 Bcf/d. Freeport is also expected to get approval for LNG processing and will begin exporting new inventory, likely by the end of April or May. This will mean between 2.0 and 2.6 Bcf a day will move from domestic supply to export.