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TPI market snapshot May 15 2023

SUMMER WEATHER OUTLOOK: SAY HELLO TO EL NINO

US Weather Map: Seasonal Temperature Outlook - El Nino chart
US Weather Map Seasonal Temperature Outlook El Nino

This summerโ€™s weather could start mild but is expected to warm up as an El Nino arrives in June. This will alter the current pattern of cooler temperatures in the Pacific Northwest from La Nina and replace them with hotter temperatures.ย 

As a result, this will likely bring a much hotter and more humid late summer.


What Is El Nino, Anyway?

El Niรฑo is a climate phenomenon that happens in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Typically, trade winds blow from east to west, pushing warm water toward the western Pacific. This process creates cold, nutrient-rich waters along the west coast of South America.

During El Niรฑo, the trade winds weaken, causing warm water to flow back towards the central and eastern Pacific. This leads to warmer sea surface temperatures in those regions.


Weather Forecast: 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK

Screenshot 2023 05 15 at 81910 AM

The mild weather we are enjoying has lowered demand and spoiled any rally in the Natural Gas market.ย 

Look for triple-digit injections over the next few weeks that will only grow our supply surplus and keep our pricing for the next few months lower and may drive it even closer to $2.00


PJM ADHUB ON-PEAK ELECTRICITY 2023

The electricity market dropped about $5.00 an MWh last week. Now is an excellent time to lock in future pricing as pricing will begin to rise with higher demand in summer, especially with the arrival of El Nino.

Historical PJM ADHUB ON-PEAK ELECTRICITY 2023
Historical PJM ADHUB ON PEAK ELECTRICITY 2023


BGE HUB ON-PEAK ELECTRICITY 2023

BGE HUB ON-PEAK ELECTRICITY 2023 chart
BGE HUB ON PEAK ELECTRICITY 2023

Natural Gas News

The pricing free fall halted in the near term as Natural Gas producers started shutting down oil rigs. The Baker Hughes Rig Count dropped by 17 last week, a more than 2% drop in rigs. This is important as about 20% of our Natural Gas comes from Associated Natural Gas Production, a byproduct of Oil Drilling.