TPI Market Snapshot header

HEAT PERSISTS THROUGH TEXAS AND THE PLAINS STATES

weather map

JULY MARKET CONTINUES TO SLIP DOWNWARDS

FREEPORT AND EASING WEATHER EXTREMES

energy chart
  • From a high of $9.54 on June 8th, when the Freeport facility suffered the explosion, the market dropped $3.45 in less than three weeks. While the slide has slowed, easing extremely hot weather forecasts has helped continue the decline in demand and pricing.
  • The question will be, when will we see drops in electricity pricing? Electricity pricing had dropped just slightly by June 21st, we might see a more considerable drop this week, or heavy demand might keep the prices climbing.
  • Pricing did ease up as the capacity auction came in even lower than last year at just over $34.00

NATURAL GAS STORAGE REPORT

EIA chart - natural gas storage

Forward Power Pricing

PJM ADHUB FORWARD POWER PRICING

energy chart

PJM BGE FORWARD POWER PRICING

energy chart

TPI Takeway:

  • The market has fallen $3.45 since the explosion at the Freeport LNG facility on June 8th. This has impacted storage predictions and the easing of extreme weather has kept the market sliding down, albeit much slower than last week.
  • The 2023-2024 capacity auction results were released Tuesday, and capacity came in even lower than last time, with BGE dropping by almost half to $69.95 and the AdHub (including ATSI) dropping from $50.00 to $34.13. The drop is attributed to an increase in nuclear.

    The auction featured a surge in cleared nuclear and new gas-fired generation, with a decline in coal-fired generation.
  • Electricity pricing has not dropped much as there is usually a lag between gas and electricity. This week, keep an eye on wholesale pricing as this may be when that lower gas price affects the electricity market.
  • Next April is still the expected month for pricing to drop as the market goes from $6.32 in February 2023 to $4.64 in April. However, electricity pricing has yet to reflect this price drop, with pricing on the matric still hovering between $0.075 and $0.085 for May 2023.