EIA: U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY SOURCE 2018-2024
If you look at the sources of electricity supply, natural gas, coal, and nuclear may have a clear lead, but if you add wind and solar together and then break them down ‘other‘ you find out that renewables are probably in second place as other also accounts for hydro (a renewable) and geothermal (also a renewable).
NATURAL GAS RIG COUNTS
Keep an eye on the Natural Gas rig counts. We have dropped from 166 rigs a year ago down to 113 this last week. This is the lowest we have been since just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Last winter, we got lucky as we had a very mild winter. If we have a standard or colder-than-average winter, those idle wells will take a bit to spin up again.
EIA: WEEKLY NATURAL GAS STORAGE
Due to high natural gas demand, the EIA reports that we have had weak injections this summer. We were 25.3% above last year’s storage level a month ago and 14.6% over the five-year average. We are now 16.1% above last year and 6.8% above the five-year. If we get below the five-year average, gas prices will rise sharply.
Weather: 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK
Though most of the country will see higher-than-average temperatures, the average temperature is now lower than just a month ago. The sun rises later and sets earlier, reducing the amount of time we spend in maximum heat. We should start seeing larger injections for the next few weeks, though we may still be off the pace of the five-year average.
AEP ADHUB ELECTRICITY VS. HENRY HUB NATURAL GAS
NYMEX 12-MONTH ROLLING STRIP -NOV-OCT
ALL ABOUT THE NYMEX TWELVE-MONTH STRIP
- The NYMEX Twelve Month Strip is the average of the upcoming 12 months of closing Henry Hub natural gas futures prices as reported on CME/NYMEX.
- A futures strip is the buying or selling of futures contracts in sequential delivery months traded as a single transaction.
- The NYMEX Twelve Month Strip can lock in a specific price for natural gas futures for a year with 12 monthly contracts connected into a strip.
- The average price of these 12 contracts is the particular price that traders can transact at, indicating the direction of natural gas prices.
- The price of the NYMEX Twelve Month Strip can show the average cost of the next twelve months’ worth of futures.
- The NYMEX Twelve Month Strip is also used to understand the direction of natural gas prices and to lock in a specific price for natural gas futures for a year.
