ENERGY MARKET PRICING TRENDS
- Natural Gas Surge: Natural gas prices have jumped sharply, driven by forecasts for a colder-than-normal winter. December prompt month pricing has increased by more than $0.50/MMBtu in under two weeks, with January now trading at $4.55/MMBtu. While warmer weather is expected over the next two weeks (which may help moderate price increases), a significant decline is not anticipated in the near term.
- Electricity Outlook: Expect the largest jump in electricity prices in 2026, followed by a plateau and a potential decrease into 2027/2028.
Weather Impact
- Weather Impacts: The NOAA is calling for a colder-than-normal winter, particularly across the Upper Midwest, Pacific Northwest, and parts of the Northeast.
- Weather systems across the western and northern U.S. will keep highs in the 40s–60s and lows in the upper 20s–40s, while the southern U.S. will experience mild highs in the 60s–80s.
- Expect light demand through Friday, with moderate demand expected for the upcoming weekend.
SUPPLY OVERVIEW
- Strong Storage & Production: Last week’s natural gas injection (+74 Bcf) surpassed the five-year average and was just below last year’s +79 Bcf. U.S. storage remains above both the five-year average and last year’s levels, providing some cushion against rising prices.
- Production Near Record Highs: Production is robust at 107.1 Bcf/d, and total storage heading into winter is near a record high, at approximately 4,000 Bcf. The total capacity stands at just over 4,300 Bcf.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Report
The weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Outlook report tracks the volume of natural gas in underground U.S. storage, revealing weekly fluctuations and comparison against 5-year averages.
DEMAND FACTORS
- LNG Export Growth: U.S. LNG exports set new records, exceeding 17.0 Bcf/d as additional facilities and trains come online. Continued infrastructure expansion could lead to exports doubling over the next decade.
WINTER 2025/2026 NATURAL GAS PRICING
Supply and Demand – Neutral
Natural gas markets firmed this week, with the November NYMEX contract up 14% to $3.44/MMBtu, supported by cooler weather forecasts, strong LNG feedgas demand, and lower output.
- Storage: For the week ending October 10, inventories rose 80 Bcf to 3,721 Bcf, 4.3% above the five-year average.
- Production: Output averaged 106.3 Bcf/d, up 4.8% year-over-year.
- Electricity: 2026 power forwards climbed 3–11% across most U.S. regions except ERCOT, which fell 3%.
Customer Takeaway: Gas and power prices are edging upward on tighter fundamentals. Cooler weather and increased LNG feedgas demand are gradually rebalancing the market, signaling a potential shift away from oversupply conditions.
NATURAL GAS WEEKLY PRODUCTION
NATURAL GAS: Quick Market Metrics
- Natural Gas Weekly Production: 107.1 Bcf/d
- Daily change: +0.3 Bcf/d
- Weekly change: -0.4 Bcf/d
- Monthly change: +2.7 Bcf/d
- 30-day avg: 105.5 Bcf/d
- Year-over-year: +3.0 Bcf/d
LNG EXPORTS
TPI Recommendations
- Procurement Strategy: Consider locking in small blocks of energy for Winter 2025, plus hedge about 25% for next summer as market insurance.
- Capacity Management: Do everything possible to eliminate premiums on your rate components, especially capacity.
- Index Product Advantage: Businesses consuming more than one million kWh/year should evaluate managed index solutions. These products allow strategic energy purchases during market dips—and offer protection if prices rise. Recent market trends indicate managed index rates remain a lower-cost option compared to fixed, all-in pricing.
NYMEX Natural Gas Calendar Strips
• The NYMEX 12-Month Strip averages the next 12 months of Henry Hub futures into one price. It’s a powerful indicator of market sentiment, allowing traders (and end-users) to lock in year-long coverage at a blended rate.
Watching shifts in this strip helps gauge the broader direction of gas markets, beyond just the prompt month.
(PJM) AD HUB DA & FWD TREND ANALYSIS
Every dollar saved on energy boosts your profit margin.
TPI Efficiency’s Energy Savings Calculator shows exactly where your business can reduce costs—without disrupting operations or requiring upfront investment.
Get your custom benchmark report and see how optimization could improve your ROI immediately.
Calculate your opportunity today and uncover your hidden savings potential.