Energy Market Update: Week of November 19
Stay informed with the latest trends and advice for managing energy costs this winter.
U.S. Weather Outlook: Nov 19–25
Expect chilly weather to linger today in the Great Lakes and Northeast, with daytime highs mainly in the 30s and 40s. Meanwhile, much of the country is enjoying mild and pleasant conditions, with highs ranging from the 50s to the 80s.
Looking ahead from Thursday through Tuesday, most of the U.S. will warm up above normal for this time of year. Northern regions will see highs in the 40s to 60s, while the southern half stays comfortable with highs in the upper 50s to 80s.
Energy demand is moderate today, then drops off to low levels late this week and through the middle of next week. Plan for easy savings as warmer weather reduces heating needs!
Winter Demand Outlook
The National Weather Service (NOAA) projects a colder-than-normal winter for the Upper Midwest, Pacific Northwest, and parts of the Northeast. Other models see colder conditions in those regions but predict warmer temperatures for the South and Southwest.
Natural Gas & Electricity Pricing
After a brief dip thanks to mild weather, energy prices have rebounded. With cooler conditions expected in 10–14 days, prompt-month natural gas is now trading above $4.50. Electricity is also climbing: the December Daily Index in AD HUB is nearly $60.00 per MWh, and January prices just passed $70.00 per MWh.
Market Drivers
Strong production—over 107 billion cubic feet per day—has kept gas supplies healthy. However, last week’s cold snap across the eastern U.S. could trigger the first heating-season withdrawal. LNG exports remain robust, approaching all-time highs at 18.0 Bcf/d.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Report
The weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Outlook report tracks the volume of natural gas in underground U.S. storage, revealing weekly fluctuations and comparison against 5-year averages.
WINTER 2025/2026 NATURAL GAS PRICING
NATURAL GAS WEEKLY PRODUCTION
LNG EXPORTS
What’s Next for Buyers?
Looking ahead, January and February 2027 power prices are trading almost $7.00 per MWh higher than this winter. Watch the market this spring—if prices dip below $73.00 per MWh, consider locking in a portion to save vs. last year’s rates. As always, eliminate costly premiums, and if your business uses over one million kWh annually, evaluate managed index products. These let you buy blocks when the market drops and shield you from price spikes, potentially saving you money compared to traditional fixed plans.
If you have any questions about current pricing or risk management strategies, reach out to your TPI team for a custom solution.
NYMEX Natural Gas Calendar Strips
• The NYMEX 12-Month Strip averages the next 12 months of Henry Hub futures into one price. It’s a powerful indicator of market sentiment, allowing traders (and end-users) to lock in year-long coverage at a blended rate.
Watching shifts in this strip helps gauge the broader direction of gas markets, beyond just the prompt month.
(PJM) AD HUB DA & FWD TREND ANALYSIS
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