Energy Market Update: Week of November 12
Stay informed with the latest trends and advice for managing energy costs this winter.
Energy Pricing Trends
Natural gas prices continue to hold above $4.00, and electricity rates are now catching up. In the PJM Ad Hub, electricity prices have risen by 0.10 cents per kWh since late October, reaching $65.00 per MWh as of Monday. Both gas and electricity prices may begin to stabilize next week, particularly as the recent cold air wave subsides across much of the country.
Supply and Demand Snapshot
Domestic gas supply remains robust, with production holding firm at 107 billion cubic feet per day for another week. However, demand is surging—primarily driven by the launch of new AI data centers and a record-setting pace in LNG exports, which hit 18 billion cubic feet per day last week. LNG exports are projected to approach nearly 30 billion cubic feet per day over the next decade, so gas production will need to keep up to help manage pricing.
Weather Outlook
The National Weather Service (NOAA) expects a colder-than-average winter, particularly for the Upper Midwest, Pacific Northwest, and parts of the Northeast. Some models also forecast chilly conditions in the Northeast and Pacific Northwest, while the South and Southwest are expected to experience warmer weather this season.
Natural Gas Demand Weather Outlook
November 12-17:
A frosty weather system is moving out of the eastern US today, after bringing overnight lows from the teens to 30s and daytime highs in the 30s to 50s. Starting Wednesday and through Monday, the East will warm into the 50s to 80s, while the West remains unsettled with highs in the 30s to 60s. Expect high nationwide natural gas demand today, but lighter demand for the rest of the week.
SUPPLY OVERVIEW
- Strong Storage & Production: Last week’s natural gas injection (+74 Bcf) surpassed the five-year average and was just below last year’s +79 Bcf. U.S. storage remains above both the five-year average and last year’s levels, providing some cushion against rising prices.
- Production Near Record Highs: Production is robust at 107.1 Bcf/d, and total storage heading into winter is near a record high, at approximately 4,000 Bcf. The total capacity stands at just over 4,300 Bcf.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Report
The weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Outlook report tracks the volume of natural gas in underground U.S. storage, revealing weekly fluctuations and comparison against 5-year averages.
WINTER 2025/2026 NATURAL GAS PRICING
NATURAL GAS WEEKLY PRODUCTION
NATURAL GAS: Quick Market Metrics
Natural Gas Weekly Production: 107.1 Bcf/d
- Daily change: +0.3 Bcf/d
- Weekly change: -0.4 Bcf/d
- * Monthly change: +2.7 Bcf/d
- 30-day avg: 105.5 Bcf/d
- Year-over-year: +3.0 Bcf/d
LNG EXPORTS
What Actions Should You Take?
If you’re considering hedging energy costs for the winter, act soon—buying large energy blocks for this season is almost past its ideal window. Look to secure your winter hedges by the end of the month and monitor the market for dips, which could present opportunities to hedge for the summer months (June through August). To keep costs down, minimize premium components, such as capacity charges, whenever possible. Large energy users (those consuming over a million kWh annually) should consider managed index products, which offer flexibility to purchase energy blocks during market lows or provide protection in the event of unexpected price rises. Keeping a managed product on index rates has often proven to be more cost-effective than fixed-rate pricing.
NYMEX Natural Gas Calendar Strips
• The NYMEX 12-Month Strip averages the next 12 months of Henry Hub futures into one price. It’s a powerful indicator of market sentiment, allowing traders (and end-users) to lock in year-long coverage at a blended rate.
Watching shifts in this strip helps gauge the broader direction of gas markets, beyond just the prompt month.
(PJM) AD HUB DA & FWD TREND ANALYSIS
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