Natural Gas Storage Report: EIA
The latest EIA data shows working gas in storage at 2,041 Bcf as of April 25, 2025, marking a net weekly injection of 107 Bcf. Inventories are now 435 Bcf below last year’s levels but sit 5 Bcf above the five-year average, keeping storage within the historical range.
Price Action: Natural Gas & PJM Power
- The PJM forward curve fell sharply in April, driven by a collapse in natural gas prices and weaker long-term heat rates.
- PJM futures through 2027 dropped by an average of $3.51/MWh (-5%).
- Near-term contracts saw the steepest declines, down $6.87/MWh (-10%), with Cal 2026 losses entirely attributed to the natural gas sell-off.
- Cal 2027 futures slipped 4%, and natural gas for the same period is down 2%, as trade tensions and economic uncertainty weigh on long-term fundamentals.
Risk Assessment
- Upside price risk persists for Cal 2026, especially with potential load growth and tightening reserve margins.
- In the near term, further downside is possible for PJM futures into late spring, but risk-averse users may consider locking in recent price declines.
- In the longer term, macroeconomic risks and the potential for mild winters could create new buying opportunities despite currently weak fundamentals.
Storage Plus Or Minus USA
Supply Dynamics
- Since January, the 107-Bcf storage injection marks the first surplus to five-year norms, offering modest bullish support.
- Mild weather is expected to continue, while weak fundamentals and technical factors could prompt speculators to reenter the market after April’s sell-off.
- Repeated large injections may pressure near-term prices, though technicals could still drive NYMEX pricing higher before any sustained decline.
6-10 & 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURES
NYMEX ROLLING PROMPT MONTH
Demand Trends
- Effective this weekend, new tariffs are impacting trade with China, with the Port of L.A. expecting a 35% drop in activity. This could reduce demand from warehousing and distribution, potentially softening prices.
- Despite economic headwinds, pricing has remained resilient.
- LNG exports remain robust, with facilities running near full capacity and over 16 Bcf/d shipped abroad. There’s been no slowdown in flows to Europe or Asia, even as natural gas prices have dropped from $15 in February to just over $10.
Actionable Insights
- For smaller accounts not using managed products, consider longer-term agreements to lock in lower rates but pass through capacity charges to minimize premiums.
- For managed index products, focus on reducing or eliminating premiums by passing through energy and capacity costs.
- Consult an energy advisor about hedging strategies, as market dips may present opportunities to secure favorable energy blocks.
PJM AD HUB DA & FWD TREND ANALYSIS
The PJM Ad Hub and Forward (FWD) Trend Analysis chart displays historical and projected prices for electricity at the PJM AD Hub, a key trading point in the PJM power market. The chart shows:
- Historical spot prices at the AD Hub, reflecting real-time market conditions.
- Forward price curves illustrate market expectations for future prices over various time horizons (e.g., monthly, quarterly, or calendar years).
- Trends in price movement, highlighting periods of price increases or declines, which can be driven by changes in natural gas prices, demand forecasts, or broader economic factors.
This analysis helps market participants understand both recent price behavior and the market’s outlook for future power costs, supporting informed procurement and risk management decisions.