TPI Market Snapshot header

NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION

NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION CHART

Natural Gas had another disappointing injection of only 70 Bcf for the week ending 5/10. Production again came in under 100 Bcf/d, and we have had lower injections than the five-year average in seven of the last eight weeks. However, we still have a great surplus of over 30% compared to the five-year average and 19% above last year.

This is a critical period when we should be observing lower pricing due to traditionally low demand. However, the anticipation of a potentially record-hot summer has led to significant volatility in electricity and gas pricing. It’s of utmost importance to monitor the pricing you are receiving closely, and if you reach a price point that you are comfortable with, it’s highly advisable to act promptly. The price is likely to fluctuate within 24 hours and is expected to trend upward.

The recent announcement by the Freeport LNG facility, a significant player in the energy market, that all three LNG trains should be operational soon, has had a profound impact on gas and electricity pricing. This facility, which has experienced outages since January, with its natural gas intake dropping to just 5% of capacity at one point, is the second-largest LNG export facility on the Gulf Coast. The news of its imminent return to full capacity is a key development to watch in the market.

NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION storage

Electricity: PJM AD HUB FORWARD POWER PRICES

Electricity: PJM AD HUB FORWARD POWER PRICES

EI: NATURAL GAS STORAGE

EIA Natural gas storage report

ANNOTATED PROMPT MONTH PRICING WITH NOTABLE EVENTS

ANNOTATED PROMPT MONTH PRICING WITH NOTABLE EVENTS

WEATHER: 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK

weather map forecast

During the 6-10 day forecast, the Pacific Northwest will be lower than average, and the Southeastern United States will be warmer. This will create warmer temperatures in the East and corresponding higher demand. However, the fronts on both ends will fade as we get closer to the 10-day forecast, with near-normal temperatures across most of the U.S.

Weather Forecast for May 20-26:

Texas:

  • Monday-Tuesday: Expect very hot temperatures, ranging from the 90s to the low 100s.
  • Wednesday-Sunday: It will cool down a bit, with highs in the 80s and 90s.

Southern U.S.:

  • The country’s southern third will experience warm to hot weather, with highs in the 80s and 90s. Some areas in the Southwest might even reach the low 100s.

Northern U.S.:

  • The northern two-thirds will have comfortable temperatures, generally in the 60s to 80s.
  • The Ohio Valley might briefly hit near 90 on Monday.

The Northern Rockies will be cooler, with highs in the 50s.

  • Expect showers and thunderstorms as weather systems move through the area.