6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK
The forecasted extreme heat across the U.S. will mean a much higher demand and, consequentially, a lower injection. This will further erode our gas surplus for months, possibly bringing the NYMEX price back above $3.00 for the prompt month.
NATURAL GAS STORAGE
Last week’s injection of +74 was well below last year’s and the five-year average. The increase in LNG exports, higher demand, and, most of all, the cutback in production are shrinking our gas surplus. The surplus could be gone by the end of this coming winter.
OPEC KEEPS PRODUCTION CUTS
OPEC’s announcement last Sunday that it will keep the production cuts implemented in the previous year through at least the end of this year is not just a news update, but a potential game-changer. This will make it more likely that U.S. drillers will increase production to grab a larger market share, a move that could help Oil prices remain high, allowing more production of associated natural gas, a byproduct of oil drilling. We need to be prepared for this potential shift in the market dynamics.
Electricity News- CAPACITY AUCTION
The next capacity auction, the PJM Base Residual Auction, is not just another event in our calendar but a crucial one that began on June 12th and will close on June 18th, with results slated to be posted on June 25th. This auction will determine capacity prices for parts of the PJM grid for the 2025/2026 year. The auction results will be applied in June 2025 and last through May 2026. Capacity for 2024/2025 is currently $28.92, one of the lowest capacity prices in recent years. This current auction is projected to be higher, a trend that we need to be aware of and plan for.
NYMEX NATURAL GAS CALENDAR STRIPS
PJM AD HUB FORWARD POWER CURVE
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION
Critical Peak Demand Alert
From Monday to Wednesday, the PJM grid forecasts extremely high electricity demand that could set new annual peak records. The hot weather conditions are expected to drive demand to unprecedented levels, posing a significant threat to grid reliability.
Forecasted Peak Demand
Monday, June 17, 2024
Expected Peak Timeframe: 5:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST
Potential Peak Demand: 139,826 MW
Tuesday, June 18, 2024
Expected Peak Timeframe: 5:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST
Potential Peak Demand: 146,403 MW (High Threat)
Wednesday, June 19, 2024
Expected Peak Timeframe: 4:00 pm – 5:00 pm EST
Potential Peak Demand: 147,870 MW (High Threat)
Recommended Action
To mitigate the risk of grid instability and potential outages, we strongly recommend curtailing your electricity consumption from 3:00 pm to 6:00 pm EST to the extent your operations allow. Reducing demand during these critical peak hours can help alleviate stress on the grid and ensure a reliable power supply for all customers.
