Energy Market Snapshot: June 16, 2025

Supply Overview

Natural Gas Storage Injections: The U.S. has experienced seven consecutive weeks of natural gas storage injections exceeding 100 Bcf, with the latest week’s injection at 109 Bcf—the largest so far this season. These strong injections are expected to diminish soon as hotter weather and increased LNG demand, particularly from the Plaquemines LNG facility, begin to draw down available supply.
Natural Gas Storage Levels: Current working gas in storage stands at 2,707 Bcf as of June 6, 2025, which is 5.4% above the five-year average (2,568 Bcf) but 8.6% below last year’s level at this time (2,963 Bcf).
Production: U.S. natural gas production is robust, with daily output at 106.1 Bcf/d and a 30-day average of 105.7 Bcf/d. Year-over-year, production is up by 4.5 Bcf/d, reflecting continued growth despite recent price softness.
Geopolitical Factors: Israel’s attack on Iran’s military and nuclear facilities has caused some market volatility. However, as the Iranian oil infrastructure has not been targeted, there has been no direct interruption to oil flows. Potential new sanctions could increase global oil demand, indirectly supporting higher U.S. oil and associated natural gas production.

Natural Gas Storage Report: EIA

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Demand Overview

LNG Exports: LNG exports have temporarily dropped by about 3 Bcf/d due to scheduled maintenance, but this work is ending. Export volumes are expected to rebound and could soon surpass 16 Bcf/d as facilities return to service.
LNG Capacity Expansion: The U.S. is on track for a significant increase in LNG export capacity, rising from just under 17 Bcf/d today to as much as 33.5 Bcf/d by 2030. The Plaquemines LNG facility alone is expanding to over 45 million tonnes per annum (MTPA), making it the largest in North America and a major driver of future demand.
Weather Impact: Recent weather-driven demand has been mild, but forecasts indicate an increase in cooling degree days (CDDs), with temperatures in some northern cities potentially reaching 90°F. This could provide near-term support for demand, although the end of the heating season is fundamentally bearish for the market.

Natural Gas Production Report (Chart)

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Market Dynamics & Pricing

Futures & Hedging: Natural gas futures for post-2027 delivery are trading at multi-year lows, presenting an opportunity to hedge future energy needs at attractive prices. This is particularly relevant as LNG demand is poised to tighten supply in the coming years.

Nymex Rolling Prompt Month (Chart)

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ALL ABOUT THE NYMEX TWELVE-MONTH STRIP

The NYMEX Twelve Month Strip is the average of the upcoming 12 months of closing Henry Hub natural gas futures prices as reported on CME/NYMEX.
A futures strip is the buying or selling of futures contracts in sequential delivery months traded as a single transaction.
The NYMEX Twelve Month Strip can lock in a specific price for natural gas futures for a year with 12 monthly contracts connected into a strip.
The average price of these 12 contracts is the particular price that traders can transact at, indicating the direction of natural gas prices.
The price of the NYMEX Twelve Month Strip can show the average cost of the next twelve months’ worth of futures.
The NYMEX Twelve Month Strip is also used to understand the direction of natural gas prices and to lock in a specific price for natural gas futures for a year.

Strategic Recommendations

Capacity Costs: Eliminate supplier premiums on forecasted components by passing through capacity costs. Pay actual costs as incurred rather than locking in worst-case scenario rates for 2026/2027. If your usage exceeds capacity and then decreases, your costs will adjust downward accordingly.
Hedging: Consider locking in blocks of energy from early 2028 onwards, as current forward prices are favorable compared to the last three years.
Monitor Supply & Demand: Stay alert to changes in LNG export levels, weather-driven demand, and geopolitical developments, all of which could shift the supply-demand balance and impact pricing.

Key Data Table

Metric	Current Value	YoY Change	Notes
Storage (June 6, 2025)	2,707 Bcf	2,707 Bcf	5.4% above 5-yr avg, 8.6% below last year
Weekly Injection (latest)	109 Bcf	+13.5%	Largest so far this season
Production (current)	106.1 Bcf/d	+4.5 Bcf/d 30-day avg	105.7 Bcf/d
LNG Exports (avg 2025 forecast)	14.6–16.0 Bcf/d	+2–4 Bcf/d	Maintenance ending, ramp-up expecte
Henry Hub Spot Price (May 2025)	$3.12/MMBtu	+46%	Down from $3.40 last month
LNG Export Capacity	33.5 Bcf/d	+100%	Driven by Plaquemines, other expansions

In Conclusion:

The U.S. natural gas market is entering a period of transition: storage levels are healthy but starting to tighten, production remains strong, and LNG export capacity is poised for significant growth. Near-term prices remain soft, but the outlook for 2028 and beyond is bullish as demand from new LNG facilities ramps up. Now is a strategic time to review capacity arrangements and consider hedging future energy needs while prices remain favorable.

Weather Forecast: June 16–22, 2025

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Regional Highlights

Southern Two-Thirds of the U.S.:
- Expect warm to very hot conditions, with daytime highs ranging from the 80s to 100s.
- The hottest temperatures will be in California and the Southwest.
Northern One-Third of the U.S.:
- Comfortable weather is expected, with temperatures ranging from the 60s to the 80s.
- These milder conditions are due to the presence of weak weather systems moving through the region.

National Demand Outlook

Overall Demand: National demand for natural gas and electricity will be moderate over the next seven days.
Local Demand: Some areas, especially in the hotter southern regions, may experience locally high demand due to elevated temperatures.

Electricity Market: What to Expect on Your NEXT Bill

Due to recent PJM auction results, your facility can expect a 15–20% increase in electricity costs this month. The rapid growth of AI manufacturing, electrification, and electric vehicles is putting additional strain on the grid, and these demand-side pressures are expected to intensify over the next seven years—just as some supply sources are scheduled to retire.

We’re committed to helping you navigate these changes and minimize your reliance on an increasingly stressed grid.

What You Can Do Now

Consider Energy Hedging
Implementing hedging strategies could reduce your electricity costs by up to 15% compared to traditional fixed-rate contracts.
Engage with Our Experts
Schedule a complimentary onsite energy audit to:
- Identify all possible energy conservation measures.
- Improve electrical service reliability and backup solutions.
- Explore alternative onsite generation options.
- Find operational improvements to offset peak usage.

Staying proactive is the best way to manage rising costs and ensure your facility’s energy resilience. Contact our team for personalized support and tailored solutions.