NATURAL GAS MARKET PRODUCTION
Natural gas production remains strong, consistently broaching or approaching 105 Bcf daily. These are record production numbers. Due to the record oil production, we are also seeing added secondary natural gas production, a byproduct of oil drilling.
FUTURE LNG EXPORT FACILITIES
We will need that extra natural gas in the future as three liquid natural gas export facilities are scheduled to go online in the U.S. in 2025, and two more are planned for 2027. All of this extra export capacity means that the U.S., currently exporting a record amount of LNG now at about 14 Bcf a day, will be exporting an additional 8.5 – 9.0 Bcf daily. That is somewhere around 60 Bcf a week.
We could see an extra 60 Bcf a week off the board when the new export facilities open. That would mean if those facilities had been available in 2023, 12 of the 32 weeks we had of natural gas injections would have instead been withdrawals, and gas would be much higher priced.
U.S. Weather: 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK
January 3-9: Get ready for a mix of weather in the Midwest and East, with rain, snow, and temperatures ranging from the 20s to 40s. Meanwhile, most of the country can expect mild conditions, with highs in the mid-40s to 60s, even in the typically unsettled West.
From January 7-9, the eastern half of the U.S. will experience above-normal temperatures, reaching the mid-40s to 70s. Despite some frosty air in the West and Plains, with highs in the 10s to 30s, the overall national demand for energy will be a bit lighter than usual.
EIA: WEEKLY GAS STORAGE
EIA: WEEKLY NATURAL GAS WITHDRAWALS AND INJECTIONS
NATURAL GAS: HENRY HUB
The market for gas and electricity has climbed since mid-December on the prediction of a colder January. Past cold spells have been shorter over the last few years, so we could still see a warm second half of January. If Spring arrives early in March or April, we could see another low below $2.50, possibly $2.00.
