Natural Gas Pricing Trends
Unseasonably warm weather is taking its toll on natural gas prices. Since early December, the January prompt-month contract has fallen sharply—from a high of $5.42 on December 5th to $3.91 today. If mild temperatures persist into the new year, prices could dip below $3.50.
With demand easing, gas producers have started to scale back production, now averaging around 105.0 Bcf/d, down from 108.0 just weeks ago. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports have also slipped to roughly 16 Bcf/d—whether from maintenance or reduced overseas demand—adding further pressure on domestic prices.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Report
The weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Outlook report tracks the volume of natural gas in underground U.S. storage, revealing weekly fluctuations and comparison against 5-year averages.
What This Means for You
This warm spell has created a window of opportunity for cost-conscious buyers. Over the past 10 days, next January’s gas pricing has dropped by 60 cents, and PJM Ad Hub electricity prices have followed suit—down more than $5.00 per MWh.
It may be an ideal time to lock in a hedge for next winter or the high-demand summer months (July and August). Prices could keep falling, but they may also rebound quickly—so a 20–50% hedge could serve as both a smart purchase and valuable protection against future price swings.
WINTER NATURAL GAS PRICING
LNG EXPORTS
Weather Outlook (Dec 17–21)
Warmer-than-normal conditions are expected across most of the U.S. through Sunday, with highs ranging from the upper 40s to 80s. This pattern will keep natural gas demand low for the rest of the week.
NYMEX Natural Gas Calendar Strips
• The NYMEX 12-Month Strip averages the next 12 months of Henry Hub futures into one price. It’s a powerful indicator of market sentiment, allowing traders (and end-users) to lock in year-long coverage at a blended rate.
Watching shifts in this strip helps gauge the broader direction of gas markets, beyond just the prompt month.
NYMEX PRICE TREND ANALYSIS
(PJM) AD HUB DA & FWD TREND ANALYSIS
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