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Natural Gas Exports
LNG Exports have dropped to almost 10 Bcf/d. The partial shutdown of the Freeport LNG facility, paired with mild weather in Europe, has been the cause of much of that decline. Freeport has had maintenance issues for a few weeks now and may be required to shut down all three trains to deal with them.ย Thisย should cause pricing to deflate until the facility returns to 100%.ย
NYMEX CALENDAR STRIPS
Fixing the price of electricity and gas for the future, whether two, three, or four years out, is a complex task. Capacity costs are uncertain beyond May 2025, and energy costs are projected to rise in future years without accountingย for potential unforeseen factors. In this scenario, the most viable option could be a base agreement for a layered hedging product for electricity or an NYMEX + agreement for gas. These strategies offer timing and purchase quantity flexibility, which is crucial in such a volatile market.
WEATHER:
ย The upcoming milder fronts are expected to bring lower demand, which should help offset the lower production numbers we have been seeing due to gas drillers cutting back on production. Despite this, we are still observing solid injection numbers, thanks to increased oil drilling and the associated benefit of Associated Natural Gas Production.
6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK
Cooler temperatures persist following weekend weather systems that swept across the US. Monday morning lows from the upper 20s to 40s will drive stronger-than-normal demand. Throughout the week, much of the country will enjoy pleasant temperatures from mid-50s to 80s. However, the Great Lakes and Northeast will experience another cool shot midweek through Friday, with lows in the 20s-30s, leading to increased demand again. Overall, expect moderate to high demand over the next seven days.
ADHUB POWER PRICING VS. NYMEX PRICING
As we approach summer and the higher electricity demand triggered mainly by the activation of air conditioners, we are starting to see some separation between natural gas prices and electricity pricing in the AD Hub. While power burn demand for natural gas will increase, heating demand in residential, commercial, and industrial sectors will decrease.
NATURAL GAS STORAGE