Henry Hub: Natural Gas Market
GAS STORAGE ALMOST EQUAL TO LAST YEAR & THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE
EAST WILL SEE HIGH DEMAND IN THE NEXT WEEK
- Cold temperatures in the eastern half of the U.S. will see higher than average demand; however, that demand will decrease the following week when warmer temperatures in the West and average temperatures in the East will reduce that demand.
- Winter wellhead freeze-offs at Natural Gas wells have knocked our production down by about 2 Bcf/d. In addition, the freeze stops near record-breaking injections in Natural Gas production below 100 Bcf/d, worsening the storage reports and reducing the storage number.
- Pricing fell 84 cents from noon on Thursday until the weekend.
- Supply had been staying above 100 Bcf/d, but wellhead freeze-offs have started to take effect and knock almost 2 Bcf/d from production as the cold weather takes hold.
Electricity:
FirstEnergy Auction
FirstEnergy is holding its second and final auction for next year on January 10 and should be announced shortly after.
The first auction in October 2022 came in at $122.30 per Mwh or .12230 per kWh.
Weather:
CHILLY CHRISTMAS, BUT WARMER TEMPS AT THE END OF THE MONTH
- Cold Weather is on the way for the East this week which will rocket demand skyward. The following week, all that freezing weather is expected to retreat east or back to Canada.
- The market has dropped eighty cents in the last three to four days. The weather forecast for the last week in December is predicted to be warmer as the cold front hitting the eastern United States this week moves on much faster than initially thought.
Natural Gas:
EIA Natural Gas Storage Report
- Prompt-month NYMEX natural gas was trading at $6.604/MMbtu in morning trading, up $0.174/MMbtu as of 11:00 a.m. ET.
- The EIA reported a withdrawal of 50 Bcf out of underground storage for the week ending December 9, vs. an estimated withdrawal of 53 Bcf.
Inventories are 3,412 Bcf, 18 Bcf or 0.5% less than the same period last year, and 15 Bcf or 0.4% less than the 5-year average. - The first cold air is moving into the Northwest, Rockies, Plains, and Midwest now and will reach the East Coast this weekend. A second, much more powerful Arctic air mass will plunge into the Rockies, Plains, and Midwest early next week, reaching the East later next week. Severe cold in the West will be easing up gradually, and by the end of next week, coastal areas will average near to above normal, but the interior spaces will stay below normal.
- Current weather models show much colder U.S. temperatures ahead, which are likely to be accompanied by a significant tightening in domestic gas-market fundamentals as prompt month futures have risen from mid-$5/MMBtu in early December.
- Freeport LNG stuck by its end-of-December target for resuming production at the facility, even after U.S. energy regulators sent the operator an extensive information request the company will have to answer before it can restart.
PJM BGE FORWARD POWER PRICING
PJM ADHUB FORWARD POWER PRICING
