Natural Gas Headlines:
Henry Hub
The 12-Month natural gas futures strip closed at $5.41 per MMBtu, an increase of $0.01 per MMBtu compared to the prior week. Additionally, the 12 Month strip increased by $0.01, the 2023 strip decreased by $0.00; the 2024 strip increased by $0.02, and the 2025 strip increased by $0.05.
Natural Gas Storage Report
For the week ending 11/11/22, the working natural gas in storage for the lower 48 states was 3,644 bcf, representing an increase of 64 bcf compared to last week’s report. Also, the reported levels represent an increase of 4 bcf compared to one year prior and a decrease of 7 bcf compared to the five-year average.
National Weather Headlines:
This week: Colder-than-average temperatures will rule most of the U.S. through Tuesday with chilly highs ranging between 10 and 40 degrees across the northern U.S., and lows between zero and 20 degrees.
Temperatures will warm over much of the U.S. later in the week, with highs between 40 to 70 degrees.
Across the U.S., it will gradually warm up to average heading into the Thanksgiving holiday period.
The recent cold and stormy weather in the West will be replaced by a much farther north storm track, allowing much of the West to dry out and warm up next week. In addition, temperatures in California and the Southwest will get above normal, easing heating demand considerably.
EIA: Working natural gas stocks end refill season near previous five-year average
This week, the EIA reported that working natural gas stocks reached 3,644 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of November 11, 2022, according to the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, nearly matching the five-year average and exceeding the year-ago level for this time of year. The deficit to the five-year average totaled 7 Bcf (0.2%) as of November 11—its lowest level since last January. In addition, an increase in injections during the final weeks of the refill season (April 1–October 31) reversed what had been a below-average year for storage injections.
Two factors increased injections of natural gas into storage this refill season:
- Growth in U.S. dry natural gas production exceeded domestic natural gas consumption and exports.
- In June, the fire and resulting shut-in at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility reduced exports.
Start of the refill season—April 1
On April 1, working natural gas stocks were 17%, or 285 Bcf, lower than the five-year average. Net injections into working natural gas fell short of the five-year average during most of the following weeks. As a result, the deficit to the five-year average grew to 367 Bcf during the week ending August 12, amid high temperatures and high demand for cooling.
However, increasing dry gas production during the summer and moderate temperatures since September 9 led to rapid change in the natural gas storage balance; weekly net injections exceeded their previous five-year averages in eight of the nine following weeks.
End of the refill season—October 31
The refill season ended 3% below year-ago and five-year averages. However, injections this season, at 2,150 Bcf, were 16% higher than one year ago and 9% higher than the five-year average, which reduced the deficit.
Although the end of the refill season is October 31, the effective end of the refill season occurs in mid-November because injections generally continue during the first few weeks of the heating season. Moderate temperatures during the first couple of weeks in November contributed to continued larger-than-average injections.
