EIA Natural Gas Storage Report
NATURAL GAS SUPPLY
• The latest storage report posted a robust injection of +88 Bcf, capping off one of the most supply-heavy Aprils on record. U.S. gas storage now sits just 2.2% below the five-year average, a milestone many analysts expected would take most of 2025 to reach. This rapid inventory recovery will likely exert downward pressure on prices as we head into the hotter summer months, especially if the next two weeks continue to feature strong storage builds.
• Natural gas pricing continues to hover near the $3.00/MMBtu mark. Should next week’s storage report show another large injection- anything above 44 Bcf- the market could see prices break below $3.00/MMBtu.
NYMEX 12-MONTH STRIP
ALL ABOUT THE NYMEX TWELVE-MONTH STRIP
- The NYMEX Twelve Month Strip is the average of the upcoming 12 months of closing Henry Hub natural gas futures prices as reported on CME/NYMEX.
- A futures strip is the buying or selling of futures contracts in sequential delivery months traded as a single transaction.
- The NYMEX Twelve Month Strip can lock in a specific price for natural gas futures for a year with 12 monthly contracts connected into a strip.
- The average price of these 12 contracts is the particular price that traders can transact at, indicating the direction of natural gas prices.
- The price of the NYMEX Twelve Month Strip can show the average cost of the next twelve months’ worth of futures.
- The NYMEX Twelve Month Strip is also used to understand the direction of natural gas prices and to lock in a specific price for natural gas futures for a year.
NATURAL GAS DEMAND
• April is a classic “shoulder month,” where heating demand fades, and cooling demand has yet to pick up. This seasonal lull is contributing to subdued demand and softer prices.
• On the industrial front, the recent easing of trade tensions could encourage manufacturers to ramp up demand in the coming weeks.
• U.S. LNG export facilities remain near full capacity, with exports exceeding 16 Bcf/d as new projects like Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi Stage 3 continue their ramp-up. While the ongoing tariff dispute may affect some importers, European gas storage levels remain below 40%, suggesting strong export demand for U.S. LNG.
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION REPORT
AD HUB DAY-AHEAD & FORWARD POWER PRICING
NATURAL GAS: 24 MONTH TRADING HISTORY FOR NEXT FOUR YEARS
MARKET OUTLOOK & RECOMMENDATIONS
• Forward pricing for 2027–2029 is at its lowest trading point in the past two years. For those on managed products, this is an opportune moment to set aggressive price targets for winter and peak summer months. Consider layering in coverage for 25–50% of those periods if prices drop.
• Continue to pass through premium costs, such as capacity and energy, directly to end-users whenever possible. This strategy avoids locking in worst-case scenario rates and ensures you pay only actual incurred costs, minimizing unnecessary premiums.
Key Takeaway:
Storage surpluses and record supply are keeping prices low, even as LNG exports remain robust and global demand growth moderates. With forward curves at multi-year lows, now is the time to act aggressively on long-term procurement while maintaining flexibility on pass-through costs. Stay tuned for upcoming storage reports, as further strong injections could push prices even lower into the summer.
Weather Outlook: April 28 – May 3
Prepare for a beautiful week across most of the U.S.! Expect comfortable, spring-like temperatures with highs in the 60s to 80s for much of the country. The only exceptions will be the Mountain West and Northern Plains, where a passing weather system will keep things a bit cooler, with highs in the 50s.
If you’re in the far southern states, prepare for a taste of early summer temperatures. You can look forward to ideal highs in the 70s and 80s for most other regions of the country.
With such pleasant weather, national energy demand will remain light over the next week.