Weather Outlook
6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Forecast
A much warmer than normal system is moving across the east, which should help reduce demand slightly. However, northern states and some Great Lakes states are still experiencing heating demand despite the warmer front. This mixed weather pattern suggests variable natural gas consumption in the coming weeks.
Storage and Supply
Natural Gas Storage Report
Our natural gas surplus is now just 2.9% above last year and 4.6% above the five-year average. This tightening supply situation is contributing to upward pressure on prices.
Production Update
Production remains steady, hovering just above 101 Bcf/d. This level and increasing demand factors have been a key driver for higher prices.
Demand Factors
LNG Exports
LNG exports have surged to approximately 14 Bcf/d, driven by higher prices in overseas markets. Demand for LNG has risen across major markets, including:
- TTF (Europe)
- NBP (UK)
- JKM (Asia)
- Mexico Exports
Market Dynamics
NYMEX Natural Gas vs Global LNG (Prompt Month)
As we approach November, and demand recovers following Hurricane Helene, the prompt month pricing for November has climbed back above $3.00. This price movement reflects the interplay between domestic and global natural gas markets.
AD Hub Wholesale Electricity from Freepoint
Market Outlook
The natural gas market is currently balanced on several key factors:
- Supply Concerns: With supply just 4.6% above the five-year average, even a typical winter could push supply below that benchmark and accelerate price increases.
- Investor Sentiment: Investors are buying into gas with the expectation of higher winter demand and potential supply tightness.
- Weather Uncertainty: A mild winter, similar to the past two years, could cause investors to liquidate their gas investments in late February, potentially leading to a sharp price drop.
- Global Demand: Strong LNG export demand supports prices and tightens the domestic market.
