WEATHER: 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK
Expect pleasant weather across the northern United States with a mix of rain and snow, bringing mild to slightly cool temperatures from the mid-30s to 50s. In the southern U.S., it’s mainly looking dry and comfortable, with highs in the 50s to 70s and locally reaching the 80s. The national energy demand will be light over the next seven days.
EIA: WEEKLY GAS STORAGE
Gas pricing has decreased over the last two weeks based on excellent storage reports and forecasts of mild winter temperatures. Falling prices in Natural Gas have also brought down the price of electricity, with the average price in the PJM AD HUB and the BGE HUB dropping 3-5 dollars per MWh.
Strong Natural Gas production numbers remain as we are near record bcf per day produced. We have been enjoying multiple weeks of production at nearly 105 bcf daily. These record production amounts have stabilized our storage numbers heading into winter. So far, we have had just ONE week of withdrawals, even though the official start to withdrawal season was November 1st.
WEATHER: IT’S AN EL NINO WINTER
TYPICAL EL NINO
The forecast for this winter looks milder than a typical winter. This is mainly due to an El Nino in the Pacific Ocean that has warmed up the surface temperatures of the water in the South Pacific and warmed up the jet stream across the U.S.
Another contributing factor to lower electricity pricing will be the second year of wetter-than-normal weather in the West over the winter. Finally coming out of its decade-long drought last spring, California appears to be in for a wet winter again. This will help produce the electricity they produce from hydro, a renewable source of electricity.
DECEMBER, JANUARY FEBRUARY TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WHAT IS EL NINO?
El Niño is a climate phenomenon that occurs irregularly in the tropical Pacific Ocean, characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures, which can significantly impact weather patterns worldwide.
During normal conditions, the trade winds blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific, pushing warm surface waters towards the western Pacific near Indonesia.
This process results in the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters along the west coast of South America, supporting the growth of marine life.
